Morning Glory < 30 Seconds
September 29, 2020
By Cliff Oxford
Daily Deal—Trump in the last 10 days has slithered into serious reelection trouble, according to his own internal polling with a specific slice of electorate: White divorced women. He is now reminding them of their first husbands. 2016 he won category by 14 points when they rooked Hillary for staying with Bill. But as of Sunday night, Trump losing group in 2020 to Biden by two points and falling.
A wild guess is this voting block is not particularly prone to changing their minds—better chance of him closing gap with Black Lives Matter or picking off last 5% to make it a clean sweep of white Christian women.¹ Anything is possible but "Why Cliff?" is ringing in my ears.
Side Deal—Look for Trump to go for broke tonight on Biden’s mental acuity. Trump has to persuade where Biden can get by with just reassurance for first 45 minutes when channel changing begins.
IPO Glow—Poshmark, a Redwood City, Calif.-based online marketplace for pre-owned luxury goods, filed confidentially for IPO.
Eargo, a San Jose, Calif.-based hearing-aid maker, filed for a $100 million IPO. Posted revenue of $32.7 million, 2019 loss of $44.5 million.
Entries/Exits—Look at results and Yves Lamoureux is the best macroeconomist in country. His firm, Lamoureux & Co., just released the be-all end-all on what and whys of the next five years. Loaded and long-winded, with blinding detail, describes second stock market sell-off with second wave of virus, surges again in 2021, and drops to the floor like a dead cat in 2023, when a 20-year decline in real estate prices will have started. He says bitcoin is best deflationary asset and names the fund.
We will brief the report into one page and send to think tank colleagues.
By the way, my biggest fear at Oxford was someone might ask the person next to them “How much did you pay?” We had about 355 companies in our portfolio and around 349 pricing plans, only a slight exaggeration. This time I am not cutting 355 deals but just one. October 1st I have outsourced subscriptions to my publisher and sponsorship to Ted Baker.
“Real Time with Bill Maher” renewed at HBO through 2022.
Chris Rock will host Oct. 3 season premiere of NBC’s "Saturday Night Live." Megan Thee Stallion as musical guest, whose album “Suga” scored more than 900 million streams, with hit single “Savage” going triple platinum. Get in the game.
NBC says entire season-45 SNL cast, including Kate McKinnon, Aidy Bryant, Cecily Strong, and Kenan Thompson, will return for season 46. Jim Carrey to play Joe Biden in upcoming season.
TikTok’s future CEO could be another Kevin. My bet to replace Kevin Mayer, who resigned last month, is Kevin Systrom, the Instagram co-founder who left Facebook in 2018.
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